China'S Foreign Trade Data: Competitiveness And Challenges

Data released by China Customs General Administration on 8 showed that in April, China's exports increased by 4.1% compared to the same period last year, and imports dropped by 5.7% over the same period last year, down sharply compared with March and below market expectations.

Foreign media believe that despite high expectations, China's foreign trade performance in April is still good.

However, due to the weak external demand and other factors,

The situation is still facing challenges.

Derek Holt, an analyst with Canada's Scotia bank, said that the global market is highly concerned about the latest data on China's imports and exports, given the importance of China's economy.

Data show that in April, China

298 billion yuan, an increase of 45.8% over the same period last year.

In the first 4 months of this year, the total volume of trade between China and the largest trading partner of the European Union increased by 0.3% compared to the same period last year. The total trade volume between China, the United States, China and ASEAN and China and Japan decreased by 4.8%, 3.1% and 2% respectively.

Reuters quoted Zhou Hao, a senior emerging market economist at Commerzbank, as saying that China's import and export data in April were lower than expected, consistent with the weakening trend of Asian trade and making this year a challenging year.

However, many analysts believe that foreign trade data in April are not as good as expected. One major factor is that the growth rate of import and export data in March has been pushed up by expectations. The overall performance of foreign trade in April is still good.

CITIC Securities fixed income team pointed out that the growth rate of exports in April was the highest since 2015, and maintained a positive growth rate.

The warmer trend is still continuing, while imports are down year-on-year, but the third highest since November 2014.

Reuters's report also holds that China's global export market share is rising from 12.3% in 2014 to 13.8% in 2015 under the background of shrinking global demand, which means that China's exports remain competitive despite rising costs and other unfavorable factors.

Moreover, the Chinese government will continue to take measures to stimulate exports, including encouraging banks to increase credit, strengthen export credit insurance and increase export tax rebates.

China's foreign trade has a certain foundation for stabilizing the whole year.

In addition to import and export data, China will also publish a number of economic core data in the next two weeks.

The Associated Press reported that economists expected that China's credit and industrial output data to be released will probably decline and inflation may rise.

Zhou Hao believes that the market has to prepare for China's more weak economic data.

He believes that the people's Bank of China's monetary policy may continue to be relaxed.

In this regard, foreign media believe that China will control monetary stimulus.

In the first quarter of this year, China's economic growth rate was 6.7%, the lowest growth rate in 28 quarters.

But in March, the signs of a rebound in China's economy were evident, and concerns about China's "hard landing" weakened.

Some analysts believe that the opening of China's economy is stable this year, the employment situation is generally stable, residents' income has increased steadily, economic and financial risks are generally controllable, and the overall trend of economic operation is in line with expectations.